Comparing serial and current liver stiffness measurements to predict decompensation in compensated advanced chronic liver disease patients

Abstract

Introduction: The utility of serial liver stiffness measurements (LSM) to predict decompensation in compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) patients remains unclear. We aimed to validate whether comparing serial LSM is superior to using the current LSM to predict liver-related events (LRE) in cACLD patients.

Methods: In this retrospective analysis of an international registry, cACLD patients with serial LSM were followed up until index LRE. We compared the performance of both the dynamic LSM changes and the current LSM (LSMc ) in predicting LRE using Cox-regression analysis, considering time zero of follow-up as the date of LSMc.

Result: 480 cACLD patients with serial LSM were included from 5 countries. The commonest etiology of cACLD was viral (53%) and MASLD (34%). Over a median follow-up of 68 (45-92) months, 32% experienced LSM decrease to levels below 10kPa (resolved-cACLD) and 5.8% experienced LRE. Resolved-cACLD were more likely to be non-diabetic and had better liver function. While a higher value of the current LSM (LSMc) was associated with higher LREs, LSM changes over time (LSM slope) were not associated with LRE. In multivariable Cox regression, both prior LSM and LSM slope did not add predictive value to LSMc.

Conclusion: Once the current LSM is known, previous LSM values do not add to the prediction of LREs in cACLD patients.