Frequent disturbances enhanced the resilience of past human populations

Nature. 2024 May;629(8013):837-842. doi: 10.1038/s41586-024-07354-8. Epub 2024 May 1.

Abstract

The record of past human adaptations provides crucial lessons for guiding responses to crises in the future1-3. To date, there have been no systematic global comparisons of humans' ability to absorb and recover from disturbances through time4,5. Here we synthesized resilience across a broad sample of prehistoric population time-frequency data, spanning 30,000 years of human history. Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of population decline show that frequent disturbances enhance a population's capacity to resist and recover from later downturns. Land-use patterns are important mediators of the strength of this positive association: farming and herding societies are more vulnerable but also more resilient overall. The results show that important trade-offs exist when adopting new or alternative land-use strategies.

Publication types

  • Historical Article

MeSH terms

  • Agriculture* / history
  • Agriculture* / statistics & numerical data
  • Cross-Sectional Studies
  • History, Ancient
  • Humans
  • Longitudinal Studies
  • Population Dynamics* / history
  • Population Dynamics* / statistics & numerical data
  • Resilience, Psychological
  • Social Change* / history