Burden evaluation and prediction of osteoarthritis and site-specific osteoarthritis coupled with attributable risk factors in China from 1990 to 2030

Zhuowen Hao; Ying Wang; Linlong Wang; Qinyu Feng; Hanke Li; Tianhong Chen; Jiayao Chen; Junwu Wang; Guang Shi; Renxin Chen; Beihai Li; Shuanhu Zhou; Wei Jin; Jingfeng Li

doi:10.1007/s10067-024-06985-6

Burden evaluation and prediction of osteoarthritis and site-specific osteoarthritis coupled with attributable risk factors in China from 1990 to 2030

Clin Rheumatol. 2024 May 2. doi: 10.1007/s10067-024-06985-6. Online ahead of print.

Authors

Zhuowen Hao^#¹, Ying Wang^#², Linlong Wang^#¹, Qinyu Feng¹, Hanke Li¹, Tianhong Chen¹, Jiayao Chen¹, Junwu Wang¹, Guang Shi¹, Renxin Chen¹, Beihai Li¹, Shuanhu Zhou³, Wei Jin⁴, Jingfeng Li⁵

Affiliations

¹ Department of Orthopedics, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071, Hubei Province, China.
² Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430060, Hubei Province, China.
³ Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, 01125, USA. shuanhuzhou@gmail.com.
⁴ Department of Orthopedics, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071, Hubei Province, China. 907821033@qq.com.
⁵ Department of Orthopedics, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071, Hubei Province, China. jingfengli@whu.edu.cn.

^# Contributed equally.

PMID: 38696115
DOI: 10.1007/s10067-024-06985-6

Abstract

Objective: This study aimed to estimate and predict the burden of osteoarthritis (OA) and site-specific OA (hip, knee, hand, and others) from 1990 to 2030 and their attributable risk factors in China.

Method: Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases 2019. The burden was estimated by analyzing the trends of prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY). Population attributable risk (PAR) was calculated to assess the impact of high body mass index (BMI). The prediction from 2020 to 2030 was implemented by Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis.

Results: In China, prevalent cases, DALY, and incident cases of OA increased to 132.81 million, 4.72 million, and 10.68 million, respectively. Age-standardized rates (ASRs) of prevalence, DALYs, and incidence increased for OA and site-specific OA, especially for hip OA. Site-specific OA showed different susceptible peaking ages, and the burden for those over 50 years old became serious. Female preference existed in the trends for knee OA but not in those for hip, hand, and other OA. PARs of high BMI continued to increase, impacting knee OA more than hip OA and showing female preference. In the next decade, incident cases for OA and site-specific OA will continue to increase, despite that the ASR of OA incidence will decrease.

Conclusions: OA and site-specific OA remain huge public health challenges in China. The burden of OA and site-specific OA is increasing, especially among people over 50 years old. Health education, exercise, and removing modifiable risk factors contribute to alleviate the growing burden. Key Points • In China, the burden of osteoarthritis and site-specific osteoarthritis (hip, knee, hand, and others) as well as the Risk Factor (high body mass index) increased greatly from 1990 to 2019. • It is estimated that incident cases for OA and site-specific OA will continue to increase, despite that the ASR of OA incidence will decrease.

Keywords: China; Disease burden; Epidemiology; Osteoarthritis; Prediction; Site-specific osteoarthritis.

Grants and funding

2042023kf0199/the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities