Police killings of unarmed Black persons and suicides among Black youth in the US: A national time-series analysis

Abstract

Introduction: Suicide deaths among Black youth in the US have increased rapidly over the past decade. Direct or vicarious racial trauma experienced through exposure to police brutality may underlie these concerning trends.

Methods: We obtained nationally aggregated monthly counts of suicides for non-Hispanic Black and White youth (age ≤ 24 years) and adults (age > 24 years) from the National Mortality Vital Statistics restricted-use data files provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, from 2013 to 2019. Monthly counts of Black youth suicides constituted our main outcome. We defined our exposure as the monthly counts of police killings of unarmed Black persons over 84 months (2013 to 2019), retrieved from the Mapping Police Violence database. We used ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) time-series analyses to examine whether Black youth suicides increased within 0 to 3 months following police killings of unarmed Black persons, controlling for autocorrelation and corresponding series of White youth suicides.

Results: Suicides among Black youth increase by ∼1 count three months following an increase in police killings of unarmed Black persons (exposure lag 0 coefficient = 0.16, p > 0.05; exposure lag 1 coefficient = -0.70, p > 0.05; exposure lag 2 coefficient = -0.54, p > 0.05; exposure lag 3 coefficient = 0.95, p < 0.05). The observed increase in suicides concentrates among Black male youth (exposure lag 3 coefficient = 0.88, p < 0.05).

Keywords: Black youth; Police killings; Racism; Suicide; Time-series analysis.