The impact of meteorological parameters on the scrub typhus incidence in Baoshan City, western Yunnan, China

Front Public Health. 2024 Apr 24:12:1384308. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1384308. eCollection 2024.

Abstract

Background: Scrub typhus has become widespread across various regions in China in recent decades, causing a considerable burden on residents. While meteorological variables significantly impact the spread of scrub typhus, there is insufficient quantitative evidence illustrating this association in known high-endemic areas.

Methods: A distributed lag non-linear model was applied to explore the relationship between meteorological parameters and scrub typhus incidence from 2010 to 2019 in Baoshan City, western Yunnan Province, China.

Results: High monthly mean (20°C) and maximum (30°C) temperatures were associated with a peak risk of scrub typhus in the current month. Higher minimum temperatures and higher relative humidity were followed by increasing cumulative risks over the ensuing 3 months. Higher precipitation was followed by increasing cumulative risk over the ensuing 2-month period, peaking at around 30 cm.

Conclusion: The non-linear lag associations between meteorological parameters and scrub typhus incidence suggest that higher monthly minimum temperature and relative humidity could be associated with an increased risk of scrub typhus in the subsequent several months, while warm temperature is more likely to impact the occurrence of scrub typhus in the current month.

Keywords: distributed lag non-linear model; high-known endemic areas; lag pattern; meteorological parameters; scrub typhus incidence.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • China / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Humidity*
  • Incidence
  • Meteorological Concepts*
  • Nonlinear Dynamics
  • Risk Factors
  • Scrub Typhus* / epidemiology
  • Seasons
  • Temperature

Grants and funding

The author(s) declare that financial support was received for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. The work was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.81860565), the project of “Talent Support Program in Yunnan” (No. YNWR-MY-2019-008), the Science and Technology Innovation Team of Natural Focal Diseases Epidemiology in University of Yunnan Province [Yunnan Provincial Department of Education issued (2020) No.102].