Increasing ocean temperature will speed up physiological rates of ectotherms. In fish, this is suggested to cause earlier spawning due to faster oocyte growth rates. Over time, this could cause spawning time to become decoupled from the timing of offspring food resources, a phenomenon referred to as trophic asynchrony. We used biological data, including body length, age, and gonad developmental stages collected from >125,000 individual Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua) sampled between 59 and 73° N in 1980-2019. Combined with experimental data on oocyte growth rates, our analyses show that cod spawned progressively earlier by about a week per decade, partly due to ocean warming. It also appears that spawning time varied by more than 40 days, depending on year and spawning location. The significant plasticity in spawning time seems to be fine-tuned to the local phytoplankton spring bloom phenology. This ability to partly overcome thermal drivers and thus modulate spawning time could allow individuals to maximize fitness by closely tracking local environmental conditions important for offspring survival. Our finding highlights a new dimension for trophic match-mismatch and should be an important consideration in models used to predict phenology dynamics in a warmer climate.
Keywords: climate change; phenology; physiology; phytoplankton; temperature; trophic synchrony.
© 2024 The Authors. Ecology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.