Geographic Progression of Infant Respiratory Syncytial Virus Associated Bronchiolitis Across the United States Before and Since the Onset of COVID-19: Results From Four Health Systems, 2015-2023

Abstract

Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a substantial cause of infant morbidity and mortality due to seasonal peaks of bronchiolitis across the United States. Clinical and viral surveillance plays a pivotal role in helping hospital systems prepare for expected surges in RSV bronchiolitis. Existing surveillance efforts have shown a geographic pattern of RSV positivity across the United States, with cases typically starting in the southeast and spreading north and west. Public health measures implemented due to the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted viral transmission across the nation and altered the expected seasonality of RSV. The impact of these changes on the geographic progression of infant RSV bronchiolitis across the United States has not been described.

Methods: Here, we used clinical and viral surveillance data from four health care systems located in different regions of the United States to describe the geographic progression of infant RSV bronchiolitis across the country from 2015 to 2023.

Results: Prior to widespread circulation of SARS-CoV-2, infant RSV bronchiolitis followed an established geographic pattern associated with seasonal epidemics originating in Florida and spreading north (North Carolina and New York) and later westward (Nevada). Although public health and social measures implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the seasonality of RSV disease, infant RSV bronchiolitis epidemics progressed across the nation in a pattern identical to the prepandemic era.

Conclusions: Our findings highlight the importance of ongoing clinical and viral surveillance to optimally track the onset of RSV epidemics and allow health care systems to prepare for expected RSV bronchiolitis surges.

Keywords: epidemiology; respiratory syncytial virus; seasonality; surveillance.