Considerations for first field trials of low-threshold gene drive for malaria vector control

Abstract

Sustainable reductions in African malaria transmission require innovative tools for mosquito control. One proposal involves the use of low-threshold gene drive in Anopheles vector species, where a 'causal pathway' would be initiated by (i) the release of a gene drive system in target mosquito vector species, leading to (ii) its transmission to subsequent generations, (iii) its increase in frequency and spread in target mosquito populations, (iv) its simultaneous propagation of a linked genetic trait aimed at reducing vectorial capacity for Plasmodium, and (v) reduced vectorial capacity for parasites in target mosquito populations as the gene drive system reaches fixation in target mosquito populations, causing (vi) decreased malaria incidence and prevalence. Here the scope, objectives, trial design elements, and approaches to monitoring for initial field releases of such gene dive systems are considered, informed by the successful implementation of field trials of biological control agents, as well as other vector control tools, including insecticides, Wolbachia, larvicides, and attractive-toxic sugar bait systems. Specific research questions to be addressed in initial gene drive field trials are identified, and adaptive trial design is explored as a potentially constructive and flexible approach to facilitate testing of the causal pathway. A fundamental question for decision-makers for the first field trials will be whether there should be a selective focus on earlier points of the pathway, such as genetic efficacy via measurement of the increase in frequency and spread of the gene drive system in target populations, or on wider interrogation of the entire pathway including entomological and epidemiological efficacy. How and when epidemiological efficacy will eventually be assessed will be an essential consideration before decisions on any field trial protocols are finalized and implemented, regardless of whether initial field trials focus exclusively on the measurement of genetic efficacy, or on broader aspects of the causal pathway. Statistical and modelling tools are currently under active development and will inform such decisions on initial trial design, locations, and endpoints. Collectively, the considerations here advance the realization of developer ambitions for the first field trials of low-threshold gene drive for malaria vector control within the next 5 years.

Keywords: Anopheles; Adaptive trial design; Africa; Cluster randomized controlled trial (cRCT); Entomological efficacy; Epidemiological efficacy; Genetic efficacy; Mosquito; Population modification; Population suppression; Spillover.