A comprehensive analysis of COVID-19 nonlinear mathematical model by incorporating the environment and social distancing

Sci Rep. 2024 May 28;14(1):12238. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-61730-y.

Abstract

This research conducts a detailed analysis of a nonlinear mathematical model representing COVID-19, incorporating both environmental factors and social distancing measures. It thoroughly analyzes the model's equilibrium points, computes the basic reproductive rate, and evaluates the stability of the model at disease-free and endemic equilibrium states, both locally and globally. Additionally, sensitivity analysis is carried out. The study develops a sophisticated stability theory, primarily focusing on the characteristics of the Volterra-Lyapunov (V-L) matrices method. To understand the dynamic behavior of COVID-19, numerical simulations are essential. For this purpose, the study employs a robust numerical technique known as the non-standard finite difference (NSFD) method, introduced by Mickens. Various results are visually presented through graphical representations across different parameter values to illustrate the impact of environmental factors and social distancing measures.

Keywords: Infection; Mathematical modeling; NSFD method; Sensitivity; Stability analysis.

MeSH terms

  • COVID-19* / epidemiology
  • COVID-19* / prevention & control
  • Environment
  • Humans
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Nonlinear Dynamics*
  • Physical Distancing*
  • SARS-CoV-2* / isolation & purification