Natural Selection Across Three Generations of Americans

Abstract

We investigate natural selection on polygenic scores in the contemporary US, using the Health and Retirement Study. Across three generations, scores which correlate negatively (positively) with education are selected for (against). However, results only partially support the economic theory of fertility as an explanation for natural selection. The theory predicts that selection coefficients should be stronger among low-income, less educated, unmarried and younger parents, but these predictions are only half borne out: coefficients are larger only among low-income parents and unmarried parents. We also estimate effect sizes corrected for noise in the polygenic scores. Selection for some health traits is similar in magnitude to that for cognitive traits.

Keywords: HRS; Human capital; Natural selection; Polygenic scores.