Identification of severe acute pediatric asthma phenotypes using unsupervised machine learning

Abstract

Rationale: More targeted management of severe acute pediatric asthma could improve clinical outcomes.

Objectives: To identify distinct clinical phenotypes of severe acute pediatric asthma using variables obtained in the first 12 h of hospitalization.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study in a quaternary care children's hospital from 2014 to 2022. Encounters for children ages 2-18 years admitted to the hospital for asthma were included. We used consensus k means clustering with patient demographics, vital signs, diagnostics, and laboratory data obtained in the first 12 h of hospitalization.

Measurements and main results: The study population included 683 encounters divided into derivation (80%) and validation (20%) sets, and two distinct clusters were identified. Compared to Cluster 1 in the derivation set, Cluster 2 encounters (177 [32%]) were older (11 years [8; 14] vs. 5 years [3; 8]; p < .01) and more commonly males (63% vs. 53%; p = .03) of Black race (51% vs. 40%; p = .03) with non-Hispanic ethnicity (96% vs. 84%; p < .01). Cluster 2 encounters had smaller improvements in vital signs at 12-h including percent change in heart rate (-1.7 [-11.7; 12.7] vs. -7.8 [-18.5; 1.7]; p < .01), and respiratory rate (0.0 [-20.0; 22.2] vs. -11.4 [-27.3; 9.0]; p < .01). Encounters in Cluster 2 had lower percentages of neutrophils (70.0 [55.0; 83.0] vs. 85.0 [77.0; 90.0]; p < .01) and higher percentages of lymphocytes (17.0 [8.0; 32.0] vs. 9.0 [5.3; 14.0]; p < .01). Cluster 2 encounters had higher rates of invasive mechanical ventilation (23% vs. 5%; p < .01), longer hospital length of stay (4.5 [2.6; 8.8] vs. 2.9 [2.0; 4.3]; p < .01), and a higher mortality rate (7.3% vs. 0.0%; p < .01). The predicted cluster assignments in the validation set shared the same ratio (~2:1), and many of the same characteristics.

Conclusions: We identified two clinical phenotypes of severe acute pediatric asthma which exhibited distinct clinical features and outcomes.

Keywords: asthma; informatics; machine learning; pediatrics.