Objectives: This study describes aortic growth, survival and events in patients with aortic arch pathology.
Methods: Patients with an index diameter ≥4.5 cm or other pathology of the native aortic arch, were followed with longitudinal computed tomography and clinical data collected retrospectively. Aortic growth was estimated using a linear mixed model. Survival and event rates were estimated using Kaplan-Meier methods. Cox analysis assessed clinical and radiological predictors with outcomes (death, local or remote aortic events (acute aortic syndromes or intervention)). Results. 186 patients underwent 683 CT scans during 638 of patient years. The estimated annual growth was 0.28 (mm/year). 47 (25%) patients had an event and a 66% five-year event-free survival. 29 patients died, of whom 11 suffered an aortic death. 19 events were local and 25 events were remote, mostly primary events were interventions. In Cox analysis, increasing descending aortic diameter was an independent predictor of all cause of death (hazard ratio [HR], 2.16), aortic death (HR 4.81), and local event (HR 1.71). Conclusions. In patients with aortic arch pathology, growth, and aortic events should be expected. Increasing descending aortic diameter could presage an added risk, but other variables appear needed to identify patients at risk, select them for intervention or surveillance.
Keywords: Aortic arch; events; natural history; predictors; survival.