Background: During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, a reduction in the number of newly diagnosed cases of lung cancer has been reported worldwide, often associated with a higher proportion of cases diagnosed at an advanced stage compared with previous years.
Methods: Using the French National Hospital Database, we investigated incident lung cancer cases and their mortality during pandemic years 2020 and 2021, compared to predictions based on pre-pandemic years 2013-2019. Mortality was assessed up to 24 months following incidence date. Expected numbers of incident cases and all-cause deaths during the pandemic were estimated using Poisson regression models and survival was analyzed using Cox regressions.
Results: The database included 397,092 incident lung cancer cases in total, 20 % of whom underwent thoracic surgery. During the first pandemic wave (March-June 2020), there were 12 % i.e., 1940 fewer incident lung cancer cases than the expected figure (16,325), while no significant difference was found thereafter. Survival at 6 and 24 months improved steadily from 2013 to 2019 and continued to improve during pandemic years 2020-2021. However, during the first wave, a slight excess mortality was observed compared with predictions based on pre-pandemic trends.
Conclusions: The lower incidence observed during the first wave with no catch-up in the following periods could be explained by deaths among yet undiagnosed patients, either from COVID-19 or as a result of barriers to accessing healthcare. The excess mortality observed for both operated and non-operated patients may be attributable to delayed diagnosis, as well as to COVID-19-related deaths.
Keywords: COVID-19; diagnoses; impact; lung cancer; mortality.
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