Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on lung cancer diagnoses and mortality: A nationwide study in France

Cancer Epidemiol. 2024 Dec:93:102679. doi: 10.1016/j.canep.2024.102679. Epub 2024 Oct 10.

Abstract

Background: During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, a reduction in the number of newly diagnosed cases of lung cancer has been reported worldwide, often associated with a higher proportion of cases diagnosed at an advanced stage compared with previous years.

Methods: Using the French National Hospital Database, we investigated incident lung cancer cases and their mortality during pandemic years 2020 and 2021, compared to predictions based on pre-pandemic years 2013-2019. Mortality was assessed up to 24 months following incidence date. Expected numbers of incident cases and all-cause deaths during the pandemic were estimated using Poisson regression models and survival was analyzed using Cox regressions.

Results: The database included 397,092 incident lung cancer cases in total, 20 % of whom underwent thoracic surgery. During the first pandemic wave (March-June 2020), there were 12 % i.e., 1940 fewer incident lung cancer cases than the expected figure (16,325), while no significant difference was found thereafter. Survival at 6 and 24 months improved steadily from 2013 to 2019 and continued to improve during pandemic years 2020-2021. However, during the first wave, a slight excess mortality was observed compared with predictions based on pre-pandemic trends.

Conclusions: The lower incidence observed during the first wave with no catch-up in the following periods could be explained by deaths among yet undiagnosed patients, either from COVID-19 or as a result of barriers to accessing healthcare. The excess mortality observed for both operated and non-operated patients may be attributable to delayed diagnosis, as well as to COVID-19-related deaths.

Keywords: COVID-19; diagnoses; impact; lung cancer; mortality.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • COVID-19* / epidemiology
  • COVID-19* / mortality
  • Databases, Factual
  • Female
  • France / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Lung Neoplasms* / epidemiology
  • Lung Neoplasms* / mortality
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Pandemics
  • SARS-CoV-2