Identifying critical periods of susceptibility for maternal exposure to biothermal stress and the risks of stillbirth and spontaneous preterm birth in Western Australia

Abstract

A few studies investigated critical periods of temperature and the risks of stillbirth and preterm birth. This study aimed to identify critical periods of composite biothermal stress (Universal Thermal Climate Index, UTCI) for stillbirth and spontaneous preterm birth (sPTB). From the Midwives Notification System, 415 271 singleton births between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2015, were linked to spatiotemporal UTCI in Western Australia. Covariate-adjusted weekly and monthly distributed lag nonlinear Cox regression from 12 weeks before conception to birth was performed. Relative to median exposure (14.2 °C), extreme UTCI levels (1st-10th and 90th-99th centiles) were associated with higher hazards of stillbirth and sPTB, especially stronger at lower than higher exposures. Critical susceptible periods at 1st centile (10.2 °C) exposure were found during gestational weeks 21 to 42, with the strongest hazard of 1.14 (95% CI, 1.03-1.27) in the 42nd week for stillbirth, and during gestational weeks 26 to 36, with the strongest hazard of 1.09 (95% CI, 1.06-1.12) in the 36th week for sPTB. Monthly exposure showed a similar pattern but with greater magnitude. Mid to late gestation showed critical susceptible periods of biothermal stress on the birth outcomes, suggesting further studies and timely climate-related health care interventions.

Keywords: Sustainable Development Goals; Universal Thermal Climate Index; birth outcomes; climate change; cold stress; heat stress; temperature.