Despair and Voter Turnout in the United States

Abstract

Context: Deaths of despair, a term used to capture rising mortality rates among Americans who appear to be suffering from growing mental and physical distress, have received a great deal of attention from those seeking to understand this disturbing trend. Yet it is unclear how, if at all, despair influences the political behavior of the people and communities where it is most prominent. The authors contribute to the health and politics literature by examining whether personal and community-level despair shapes political participation.

Methods: The authors use novel data at both the aggregate and individual levels to examine the relationship between despair and voter turnout. First, a custom survey is used to test whether despair is associated with individual-level voter participation in several recent elections. Second, a new measure of community despair is developed at the county level that spans nearly 20 years to assess whether there is a relationship between despair and voter turnout in US counties.

Findings: The results suggest that higher levels of despair lead to lower turnout rates at both the individual and community levels.

Conclusions: This study suggests that the effects of experiencing despair are far reaching and shape political behavior among individuals and within communities.

Keywords: despair; political behavior; political participation; voting.