Trends, risk factors, and outcomes of selective screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms in at-risk patients

Abstract

Objectives: For men ages 65 to 75 years without a smoking history and for women ages 65 to 75 years with a smoking history, the United States Preventative Service Task Force recommends that primary care providers (PCPs) use their clinical judgement when offering abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) screening. This study describes the trends in screening for these cohorts, identifies factors that may influence screening rates, and compares outcomes between screened and unscreened patients.

Methods: The TriNetX population database was queried for subjects with routine PCP visit between ages 65 to 75 from 2007 to 2023 to create cohorts of male smokers, male nonsmokers, and female smokers. Prevalence and 1- and 3-year incidences of AAA screening by ultrasound and computed tomography scans/magnetic resonance imaging (CT/MRI) were calculated. Screened and unscreened patients' demographics, diagnoses, and medications were compared. Rates of AAA diagnosis and repair were compared between unmatched screened and unscreened patients.

Results: Screening for all groups peaked in 2023. Male smokers had the highest screening prevalence (21.2%), followed by male nonsmokers (3.1%) and female smokers (0.90%). The 1-year incidence of screening increased for male smokers, peaking at 8.2% in 2021. The 1-year incidence plateaued at 1.9% for male nonsmokers in 2020 and remained between 0.25% and 0.35% for female smokers for the whole observation period. By 2023, 23.6%, 14.3%, and 24.3% of male smokers, male nonsmokers, and female smokers had been screened via CT/MRI, respectively, with CT/MRI comprising the majority of screening events for all three cohorts. Hyperlipidemia and statin use were associated with screening for all groups (P < .05), whereas a personal history of coronary artery disease was associated with no screening. Screening for male nonsmokers was associated with hypertension, diabetes, and chronic pulmonary obstructive disease (P < .05). Screening in female smokers was associated with family history of coronary artery disease (odds ratio, 1.50; P < .001). For all groups, screening was associated with unruptured AAA diagnosis and endovascular aortic repair (P < .05). Screened female smokers had similar rates of AAA diagnosis as male nonsmokers (4.58% and 4.37%, respectively).

Conclusions: AAA screening in all at-risk populations increases diagnosis and treatment of AAA, but the screening rate is low for all groups, even with increasing CT/MRI use. Patients with strong risk factors for AAA are not undergoing screening. Collaboration with PCPs is necessary to increase screening rates and ensure that patients with the most clinically consequential risk factors are managed appropriately.

Keywords: AAA; Abdominal aortic aneurysm; Risk factors; Screening.