Real-World Trends and Future Projections of the Prevalence of Cirrhosis and Hepatic Encephalopathy Among Commercially and Medicare-Insured Adults in the United States

Abstract

Introduction: Describing cirrhosis and hepatic encephalopathy (HE) burden over time can inform clinical management and resource allocation. Using healthcare claims data, this observational study examined recent trends in the prevalence of cirrhosis and HE and associated healthcare resource utilization among commercially and Medicare-insured adults in the United States.

Methods: Data from the MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters Database and 100% Medicare Research Identifiable Files were analyzed (2007-2020). Annual prevalence of cirrhosis, HE, overt HE (OHE) hospitalizations, and rifaximin ± lactulose use, and costs per hospitalization per year were calculated. Average year-over-year changes in prevalence of cirrhosis, and HE were estimated. Trends were extrapolated to 2030 using ordinary least-squares regression.

Results: From 2007 to 2020, the prevalence of cirrhosis increased by an average of 4.6% year-over-year in the Commercial population and 8.1% in the Medicare population; the prevalence of HE increased by 4.3% and 2.5%, respectively. Rates of OHE hospitalizations decreased from 27.5% to 5.5% (Commercial) and from 26.2% to 9.5% (Medicare), and rates of liver transplantation increased. Average payer costs (Commercial) and provider charges (Medicare) per OHE hospitalization increased (from $40,881 to $77,699 and from $45,913 to $74,894, respectively). Use of rifaximin ± lactulose showed an increasing trend during the observation period, whereas lactulose use declined steadily.

Discussion: The healthcare burden of cirrhosis and HE in the United States is increasing. Trends are projected to continue unless action is taken, such as improving medication access and developing policies addressing the contributing factors.

Keywords: costs; healthcare resource utilization; hospitalizations; lactulose; rifaximin.