Clinical and Radiological Fusion: A New Frontier in Predicting Post-Transplant Diabetes Mellitus

Abstract

This study developed a predictive model for Post-Transplant Diabetes Mellitus (PTDM) by integrating clinical and radiological data to identify at-risk kidney transplant recipients. In a retrospective analysis across three Mayo Clinic sites, clinical metrics were combined with deep learning analysis of pre-transplant CT images, focusing on body composition parameters like adipose tissue and muscle mass instead of BMI or other biomarkers. Among 2,005 nondiabetic kidney recipients, 335 (16.7%) developed PTDM within the first year. PTDM patients were older, had higher BMIs, elevated triglycerides, and were more likely to be male and non-White. They exhibited lower skeletal muscle area, greater visceral adipose tissue (VAT), more intermuscular fat, and higher subcutaneous fat (all p < 0.001). Multivariable analysis identified age (OR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.03-1.08, p < 0.0001), family diabetes history (OR: 1.55, CI: 1.14-2.09, p = 0.0061), White race (OR: 0.43, CI: 0.28-0.66, p < 0.0001), and VAT area (OR: 1.37, CI: 1.14-1.64, p = 0.0009) as predictors. The combined model achieved C-statistic of 0.724 (CI: 0.692-0.757), outperforming the clinical-only model (C-statistic 0.68). Patients with PTDM in the first year had higher mortality than those without PTDM. This model improves predictive precision, enabling accurate identification and intervention for at risk patients.

Keywords: adiposity; kidney transplant; obesity; post transplant diabetes; visceral diposity.