Objective: Young people transitioning from out-of-home care (OHC) frequently experience poor mental health and resilience due to adverse childhood experiences (ACEs). However, there is limited understanding of the factors that mediate and moderate these outcomes. This is the first study to integrate linked administrative and longitudinal data to examine the mediation and moderation effects of placement stability, independent living skills (ILS), social inclusion, and self-determination when examining the association between ACEs and care status on mental health and resilience.
Method: We integrated retrospective linked datasets with a prospective self-report longitudinal study involving 122 young people aged 15 to 25 transitioning from OHC between April 2019 and May 2022. Path analysis was used to model complex relationships involving moderators and mediators.
Results: ILS moderated the association between ACEs and resilience, while social inclusion, self-determination, and mental health mediated the effects of care status and maltreatment exposure on resilience. Placement stability independently influenced mental health outcomes but did not mediate the ACEs-resilience relationship.
Conclusions: This study highlights the complex interplay of risk and protective factors in shaping resilience and mental health, emphasising the importance of skills development, social connectedness and autonomy among care leavers. Findings support early intervention, strength-based approaches, and trauma-informed interventions, including emotional regulation, therapeutic relationships, and stable support networks, to mitigate past trauma and enhance resilience and well-being.
Keywords: Linked data; Longitudinal data; Mental health; Out-of-home care; Path analysis; Resilience; Structural equation model.
Copyright © 2025 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.