Global type 1 diabetes prevalence, incidence, and mortality estimates 2025: Results from the International diabetes Federation Atlas, 11th Edition, and the T1D Index Version 3.0

Graham D Ogle; Fei Wang; Aveni Haynes; Gabriel A Gregory; Thomas W King; Kylie Deng; Dana Dabelea; Steven James; Alicia J Jenkins; Xia Li; Ronald C W Ma; David M Maahs; Richard A Oram; Catherine Pihoker; Jannet Svensson; Zhiguang Zhou; Dianna J Magliano; Jayanthi Maniam

doi:10.1016/j.diabres.2025.112277

Global type 1 diabetes prevalence, incidence, and mortality estimates 2025: Results from the International diabetes Federation Atlas, 11th Edition, and the T1D Index Version 3.0

Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2025 Jul:225:112277. doi: 10.1016/j.diabres.2025.112277. Epub 2025 May 22.

Authors

Graham D Ogle¹, Fei Wang², Aveni Haynes³, Gabriel A Gregory⁴, Thomas W King⁵, Kylie Deng⁶, Dana Dabelea⁷, Steven James⁸, Alicia J Jenkins⁹, Xia Li¹⁰, Ronald C W Ma¹¹, David M Maahs¹², Richard A Oram¹³, Catherine Pihoker¹⁴, Jannet Svensson¹⁵, Zhiguang Zhou¹⁶, Dianna J Magliano¹⁷, Jayanthi Maniam¹⁸

Affiliations

¹ Life for a Child, Diabetes Australia, 26 Arundel St, Glebe, New South Wales 2031, Australia; Sydney Medical School, University of Sydney, Camperdown, New South Wales 2050, Australia. Electronic address: gogle@diabetesaustralia.org.au.
² Global Responsibility Department, Breakthrough T1D, 200 Vesey St NE, NY, United States. Electronic address: fwang@breakthrought1d.org.
³ Life for a Child, Diabetes Australia, 26 Arundel St, Glebe, New South Wales 2031, Australia. Electronic address: AHaynes@diabetesaustralia.com.au.
⁴ Life for a Child, Diabetes Australia, 26 Arundel St, Glebe, New South Wales 2031, Australia. Electronic address: gabrielandrew.gregory@health.nsw.gov.au.
⁵ Global Responsibility Department, Breakthrough T1D, 200 Vesey St NE, NY, United States. Electronic address: t.w.king@student.unsw.edu.au.
⁶ Global Responsibility Department, Breakthrough T1D, 200 Vesey St NE, NY, United States. Electronic address: kylie.deng@svi.edu.au.
⁷ Lifecourse Epidemiology of Adiposity and Diabetes Center, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, 13001 East 17th Place, Aurora 80045 CO, United States. Electronic address: dana.dabelea@cuanschutz.edu.
⁸ School of Health, University of the Sunshine Coast, 1 Moreton Bay Parade, Petrie, Queensland 4502, Australia. Electronic address: sjames1@usc.edu.au.
⁹ Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, 75 Commercial Road, Melbourne, Victoria 3004, Australia. Electronic address: Alicia.Jenkins@baker.edu.au.
¹⁰ National Clinical Research Center for Metabolic Diseases, The Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Changsha 410011 Hunan, China; Key Laboratory of Diabetes Immunology, (Central South University), Ministry of Education, Changsha 410011 Hunan, China; Department of Metabolism and Endocrinology, The Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Changsha 410011 Hunan, China. Electronic address: lixia@csu.edu.cn.
¹¹ Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Hong Kong Institute of Diabetes and Obesity, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, The Chinese University Of Hong Kong Central Ave, Hong Kong; Li Ka Shing Institute of Health Sciences, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, The Chinese University Of Hong Kong Central Ave, Hong Kong. Electronic address: rcwma@cuhk.edu.hk.
¹² Department of Pediatrics and Health Research and Policy, Epidemiology, Stanford University, 279 Campus Dr, Stanford, CA 94305, United States. Electronic address: dmaahs@stanford.edu.
¹³ Clinical and Biomedical Science, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom. Electronic address: R.Oram@exeter.ac.uk.
¹⁴ Department of Pediatrics, University of Washington, 1410 NE Campus Parkway, Seattle, WA 98195, United States. Electronic address: catherine.pihoker@seattlechildrens.org.
¹⁵ Department of Clinical and Translational Research, Steno Diabetes Center Borgmester Ib Juuls Vej 83, 2730 Herlev, Denmark; Department of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medicine, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark. Electronic address: jannet.svensson.01@regionh.dk.
¹⁶ National Clinical Research Center for Metabolic Diseases, The Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Changsha 410011 Hunan, China; Key Laboratory of Diabetes Immunology, (Central South University), Ministry of Education, Changsha 410011 Hunan, China; Department of Metabolism and Endocrinology, The Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Changsha 410011 Hunan, China. Electronic address: zhouzhiguang@csu.edu.cn.
¹⁷ Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, 75 Commercial Road, Melbourne, Victoria 3004, Australia; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 21 Chancellor's Walk, Clayton Victoria 3800, Australia. Electronic address: Dianna.Magliano@baker.edu.au.
¹⁸ Life for a Child, Diabetes Australia, 26 Arundel St, Glebe, New South Wales 2031, Australia; University of New South Wales, UNSW, High St, Kensington NSW 2052, Australia.

PMID: 40412624
DOI: 10.1016/j.diabres.2025.112277

Abstract

Aims: Globally, symptomatic type 1 diabetes (T1D) prevalence varies markedly. The International Diabetes Federation 11thEdition Atlas/T1D Index Version 3.0 estimated 2025 numbers for 202 countries/territories ("countries"), and projected to2040.

Methods: The T1D Index model, a Markov model with sub-models for incidence-over-time, adult incidence, and mortality-over-time, was updated with recent population-based T1D incidence, mortality and prevalence studies. For countries without studies, data were extrapolated from countries with similarsettings.

Results: There are estimated 9.5 million people living with T1D globally (compared to 8.4 million in 2021, a 13 % increase), with 1.0 million of these aged 0-14, and 0.8 million aged 15-19 years. In lower-income countries, prevalent cases increased by 20 % from 1.8 million in 2021 to 2.1 million in 2025. Incident cases in 2025 are an estimated 513,000 (164,000 aged 0-14 and 58,000 aged 15-19 years), with incidence increasing by 2.4 % in the last year. Premature deaths are estimated at 174,000, with 17.2 % of these due to non-diagnosis soon after clinical onset. The estimated remaining life expectancy of a 10-year-old child diagnosed with T1D in 2025 varies between countries from 6 to 66 years. There are still no data available for 119 countries. The projectedT1D population for 2040 is estimated to be14.7 million.

Conclusions: The number of global T1D cases is rising quickly, especially in lower-income settings, due to increasing diagnosed incidence, falling mortality and ageing, and population growth. Contemporary data are unavailable for over 50% of all countries, highlighting need for epidemiological studies.

Keywords: Adults; Children; Incidence; Mortality; Prevalence; Type 1 diabetes.

MeSH terms

Adolescent
Adult
Aged
Child
Child, Preschool
Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1* / epidemiology
Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1* / mortality
Female
Global Health
Humans
Incidence
Infant
Infant, Newborn
Male
Middle Aged
Prevalence
Young Adult