Global, regional, and national burden of renal anemia, 1990 to 2019 and prediction to 2050

Abstract

Background: CKD is one of the most prevalent non-communicable health concerns worldwide and anaemia is a common complication of CKD. However, analysis of its prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs) and trends in the population on a global scale is lacking. Our study aimed to provide a comprehensive assessment of the burden of anaemia associated with CKD from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2050.

Methods: This study used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The prevalence and YLDs of CKD-associated anaemia were analysed worldwide, by 5 sociodemographic index (SDI) regions, by 21 geographical regions and by 204 countries and territories separately. The hierarchical age-period-cohort (APC) model was adopted to estimate the temporal trends from 1990 to 2019. The Bayesian APC model was used to predict the burden of CKD-associated anaemia from 2020 to 2050. Finally, the burden of CKD-associated anaemia was analysed by age and sex separately.

Results: From 1990 to 2019, the global disease burden of CKD-associated anaemia increased dramatically. A higher age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of CKD-associated anaemia was observed in low-middle SDI regions and a decreasing trend of ASPR associated with severe anaemia in all SDI regions. The prevalence of CKD-associated anaemia was projected to be >124 million by 2050.

Conclusion: In summary, a significant burden of anaemia associated with CKD is projected to continue increasing until 2050, with noticeable regional discrepancies. Findings here are valuable to deploy efficient measures to address the evolving public health challenge posed by anaemia from CKD.

Keywords: CKD; GBD; anaemia; impairment; prediction.