Machine learning (ML) algorithms hold the potential to outperform the selection of patients for immunotherapy (ICIs) compared to previous biomarker studies. We analyzed the predictive performance of ML models and compared them to traditional clinical biomarkers (TCBs) in the field of gastrointestinal (GI) cancers. The study has been registered in PROSPERO (number: CRD42023465917). A systematic search of PubMed was conducted to identify studies applying different ML algorithms to GI cancer patients treated with ICIs using tumor RNA gene expression profiles. The outcomes included were response to immunotherapy (ITR) or survival. Additionally, we compared the ML methodology details and predictive power inherent in the published gene sets using 5-fold cross-validation and logistic regression (LR), on an available well-defined ICI-treated metastatic gastric cancer (GC) cohort (n = 45). A set of standard clinical ICI biomarkers (MLH, MSH, and CD8 genes, plus PMS2 and PD-L1)) and de-novo calculated principal components (PCs) of the original datasets were also included as additional points of comparison. Nine articles were identified as eligible to meet the inclusion criteria. Three were pan-cancer studies, five assessed GC, and one studied colorectal cancer (CRC). Classification and regression models were used to predict ICI efficacy. Next, using LR, we validated the predictive power of applied ML algorithms on RNA signatures, using their reported receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis area under the curve (AUC) values on a well-defined ICI-treated gastric cancer (GC) dataset (n = 45). In two cases our method has outperformed the published results (reported/LR comparison: 0.74/0.831, 0.67/0.735). Besides the published studies, we have included two benchmarks: a set of TCBs and using principal components based on the whole dataset (PCA, 99% explained variance, 40 components). Interestingly, a study using a selected gene set (immuno-oncology panel) with AUC = 0.83 was the only one that outperformed the TCB (AUC = 0.8) and the PCA (AUC =0.81) results. Cross-validation of the predictive performance of these genes on the same GC dataset and an investigation of their prognostic role on a collated multi-cohort GC dataset of n = 375 resected, or chemotherapy-treated patients revealed that genes mannose-6-phosphate receptor (M6PR), Indoleamine 2,3-Dioxygenase 1 (IDO1), Neuropilin-1 (NRP1), and MAGEA3 performed similarly, or better than established biomarkers like PD-L1 and MSI. We found an immuno-oncology panel with an AUC = 0.83 that outperformed the clinical benchmark or the PC results. We recommend further investigation and experimental validation in the case of M6PR, IDO1, NRP1, and MAGEA3 expressions based on their strong predictive power in GC ITR. Well-designed studies with larger sample sizes and nonlinear ML models might help improve biomarker selections.
Keywords: Gastric; STAD; colorectal (CRC) and other cancers; immunotherapy; linear regression; machine learning (ML) models; response; survival.