Global burden of female breast cancer: new estimates in 2022, temporal trend and future projections up to 2050 based on the latest release from GLOBOCAN

Yunmeng Zhang; Yuting Ji; Siwen Liu; Jingjing Li; Jie Wu; Qianyun Jin; Xiaomin Liu; Hongyuan Duan; Zhuowei Feng; Ya Liu; Yacong Zhang; Zhangyan Lyu; Fangfang Song; Fengju Song; Lei Yang; Hong Liu; Yubei Huang

doi:10.1016/j.jncc.2025.02.002

Global burden of female breast cancer: new estimates in 2022, temporal trend and future projections up to 2050 based on the latest release from GLOBOCAN

J Natl Cancer Cent. 2025 Feb 13;5(3):287-296. doi: 10.1016/j.jncc.2025.02.002. eCollection 2025 Jun.

Authors

Yunmeng Zhang¹, Yuting Ji¹, Siwen Liu¹, Jingjing Li¹, Jie Wu¹, Qianyun Jin¹, Xiaomin Liu¹, Hongyuan Duan¹, Zhuowei Feng¹, Ya Liu¹, Yacong Zhang², Zhangyan Lyu¹, Fangfang Song¹, Fengju Song¹, Lei Yang³, Hong Liu⁴, Yubei Huang¹

Affiliations

¹ Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Key Laboratory of Molecular Cancer Epidemiology, Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Human Major Diseases, Ministry of Education, National Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.
² Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.
³ Key Laboratory of Carcinogenesis and Translational Research (Ministry of Education), Beijing Office for Cancer Prevention and Control, Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute, Beijing, China.
⁴ The 2nd Department of Breast Cancer, Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.

Abstract

Background: Breast cancer (BC) incidence and mortality vary significantly across countries, highlighting the need to update the global burden of female BC, including current trends and future projections.

Methods: Data were sourced from GLOBOCAN 2022, including estimated new cases and deaths from BC across 21 United Nation (UN) regions and 185 countries, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and mortality rate (ASMR), the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC), and demographic projections through 2050. The region-specific and country-specific BC burden for women of all ages and for young women (< 40 years old) was reorganized and re-plotted to highlight subgroup differences. Linear regression was used to explore the link between ASIR/ASMR and the human development index (HDI). Transitioning countries referred to those with low or medium HDI, while transitioned countries were those with high or very high HDI.

Results: In 2022, an estimated 2.3 million new BC cases and 666,000 BC-related deaths occurred globally, accounting for 23.8 % and 15.4 % of all cancer cases and deaths in women, respectively. Regionally, Eastern Asia reported the highest number of cases (480,019, ASIR: 37.54/100,000), while South-Central Asia had the highest number of deaths (135,348, ASMR: 13.41/100,000). At the country level, China had the highest number of cases due to its large population, whereas India reported the highest number of deaths. ASIR for both overall and early-onset BC increased with HDI, while ASMR for early-onset BC decreased with HDI (P < 0.05). Overall BC showed an increasing trend in ASIR during 2003-2015 (EAPC: 0.92 %) and a decreasing trend in ASMR during 2006-2016 (EAPC:-1.06 %). Early-onset BC showed a more significant rise in ASIR (EAPCs: 1.4 %) and a slight increase in ASMR (EAPCs: 0.16 %). If national rates remain stable, BC cases and deaths will increase by 54.7 % and 70.9 %, respectively, by 2050. Notably, increased early-onset BC cases are only observed in transitioning countries, while decreased cases are seen in transitioned countries.

Conclusions: Breast cancer remains the leading cancer burden in women, particularly in transitioning countries. Addressing this growing burden requires urgent integration of primary prevention, early detection and high-quality treatment through multi-sectoral collaboration.

Keywords: Breast cancer; Human development index; Incidence; Mortality; Trend: early onset.