Importance: Contemporary guidelines recommend sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) for patients with melanoma with predicted risk of SLN metastasis greater than 10% and consideration of SLNB when the risk is 5% to 10%. A gene expression profile (GEP)-based test that can accurately identify patients with a low risk of SLN metastasis would refine selection for SLNB.
Objective: To establish the predictive capability of the combined clinicopathological factors and GEP (CP-GEP) test to identify patients with primary cutaneous melanoma who can safely forgo SLNB and to investigate the prognostic value of CP-GEP regarding the outcome in patients with cutaneous melanoma after a negative SLNB (not reported herein).
Design, setting, and participants: This prognostic study was conducted from September 2021 to June 2024 at 9 academic medical centers with experienced melanoma surgeons. Included were patients with biopsy-proven invasive cutaneous melanoma with T1 to T3 tumors and clinically negative regional LNs. All patients were deemed candidates for SLNB using standard clinical criteria. GEP was performed on formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue from the primary melanoma biopsy. Analyses were performed from December 2024 to August 2025.
Intervention: CP-GEP testing to determine risk of having a positive SLNB in patients with T1 to T3 cutaneous melanoma who were considered appropriate candidates for the procedure based on standard clinical parameters.
Main outcomes and measures: CP-GEP results were reported as low risk or high risk; the primary outcome measure was negative predictive value (NPV) in low-risk cases. Analyses included NPV assessment by tumor (T) subcategory, primary site, and age.
Results: A total of 1761 patients (median [IQR] age, 64 [53-72] years; 997 male [56.6%]) underwent SLNB (310 [17.6%] SLN positive) and had a successful CP-GEP test; GEP was successful in 97.7% of samples. A total of 651 patients (37.0%) were considered low risk by CP-GEP. Among low-risk cases, 46 (7.1%) were SLN positive, and NPV was 92.9% (95% CI, 90.7%-94.8%). High-risk cases had a 23.8% (264 of 1110) SLN-positive rate. The percentage of cases with low-risk CP-GEP declined with increasing T category (T1 = 346 of 507 [68.2%]; T2 = 295 of 897 [32.9%]; T3 = 10 of 357 [2.8%]). CP-GEP results were consistent in discriminating SLN-positive rates across primary sites, histologic subtypes, and mitotic count categories. In 2 large subsets, clinical stage IB (n = 1187) and patients 65 years and older (n = 832), 6.5% (95% CI, 4.6%-8.8%) of low-risk clinical stage IB cases and 6.6% (95% CI, 4.2%-9.7%) of all low-risk cases in patients 65 years and older were SLN positive vs 18.3% (95% CI, 15.3%-21.6%) and 20.3% (95% CI, 16.8%-24.2%) for high-risk cases, respectively.
Conclusions and relevance: In this multicenter, prospective, blinded, prognostic study, the CP-GEP test reliably identified patients with melanoma with less than 10% SLN metastasis risk. SLN metastasis rates were approximately 3-fold greater for high-risk vs low-risk CP-GEP cases. In appropriately selected patients, the CP-GEP test may add value for shared patient-surgeon decision-making.