Cost-effectiveness of introducing a maternal vaccine or long-acting monoclonal antibody to prevent infant respiratory syncytial virus disease in Nepal

Abstract

Background: The World Health Organization recommends two passive immunisation strategies to prevent respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) disease in young infants. Both are being introduced in high-income settings, but their affordability and cost-effectiveness have not been evaluated in many low- and middle-income countries. Preliminary estimates of cost-effectiveness are needed to guide immunisation policy and planning in Nepal.

Methods: We estimated the potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of introducing a maternal vaccine (RSVpreF) or long-acting infant monoclonal antibody (mAb) (nirsevimab) over the period 2025-34 in Nepal. We compared both interventions to the status quo (no intervention) and to each other. Model inputs included health care cost estimates from a recent prospective cost-of-illness study in Kathmandu, as well as the latest efficacy data from clinical trials. The primary outcome measure was the incremental cost (2023 USD) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted from a governmental health perspective. We conducted a range of deterministic analyses, including scenarios that incorporated a societal perspective and a seasonal approach. Additionally, we performed probabilistic uncertainty analyses to assess decision uncertainty and estimated the likelihood of cost-effectiveness for each intervention across a range of willingness-to-pay thresholds.

Results: Introducing a maternal vaccine (USD 5/dose, 81% coverage, 69% efficacy, 6 months protection) or long-acting infant mAb (USD 5/dose, 97% coverage, 77% efficacy, 5 months protection) could prevent >2300 deaths and >50 000 hospital admissions over ten years. The discounted immunisation programme costs were estimated to be USD 30 and USD 35 million, respectively. Compared to the status quo, the maternal vaccine and the long-acting infant mAb were estimated to cost USD 387 and USD 486 per DALY averted, respectively, which is around 0.3 times and 0.4 times the national gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. There was a 95% probability that the maternal vaccine would be cost-effective at USD 5 per dose, assuming a willingness-to-pay threshold of 0.5 times the national GDP per capita. With our base case assumptions, the maternal vaccine dominated the mAb (i.e. generated more health benefits at a lower cost). However, the results (and the rank order of interventions) were sensitive to the dose price, efficacy, duration of protection, and RSV disease burden estimates. Cost-effectiveness of the mAb improves with timely administration or when a seasonal approach is implemented.

Conclusions: New passive immunisation strategies have the potential to prevent a substantial number of RSV-related hospitalisations and deaths in Nepal. Cost-effectiveness and product choice will heavily depend on the price negotiated for each product.