Objective.This study proposes Scout-Dose-TCM for direct, prospective estimation of organ-level and effective doses under tube current modulation (TCM) and compares its performance with two established methods.Approach.Contrast-enhanced chest-abdomen-pelvis CT exams from 130 adults (120 kVp, TCM) were analyzed. Reference organ doses for six organs (lungs, kidneys, liver, pancreas, bladder, spleen) were calculated using Monte Carlo (MC)-GPU and TotalSegmentator. These data trained Scout-Dose-TCM, a deep-learning model that predicts organ-level doses corresponding to discrete cosine transform (DCT) basis functions, enabling real-time estimation for any TCM profile. The model includes a feature-learning module that extracts contextual information from lateral and frontal scouts and scan range, and a dose-learning module that outputs DCT-based dose estimates. The loss function incorporated the DCT formulation, ensuring accurate predictions across variable TCM patterns. For comparison, dose estimation was performed following AAPM Task Group 204 (Global CTDIvol) and its TCM-adapted and organ-specific version (Organ CTDIvol). The three evaluated methods were extended to estimate effective dose and compared against the approach in AAPM Report 96, which applies a fixed dose-length product-to-effective-dose conversion factor. Five-fold cross-validation assessed generalizability via mean absolute percentage dose errors andR2correlations with MC benchmarks.Main Results.Mean organ-level absolute percentage errors were 13% (Global CTDIvol), 9% (Organ CTDIvol), and 7% (Scout-Dose-TCM). The largest discrepancies occurred for the bladder (15%, 13%, and 9%). Scout-Dose-TCM significantly reduced organ-level dose errors versus Global CTDIvol(p< 1 × 10-7) and improved predictions for liver, bladder, and pancreas versus Organ CTDIvol(p⩽ 0.005). It also achieved higher R2values and lower effective-dose error (3.01%) than Global (3.87%) and Organ (4.16%) CTDIvol, and the AAPM Task Group 96 method (31%).Significance.Scout-Dose-TCM outperformed Global CTDIvoland was comparable to or better than Organ CTDIvolfor organ and effective dose estimation without requiring segmentations at inference, demonstrating its clinical potential for prospective dose estimation in CT.
Keywords: Monte Carlo dose estimation; organ dose; radiation dose; tube current modulation.
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