Source of Introduction to China and Global Suitable Habitat Prediction for the Invasive Insect Stictocephala bisonia (Hemiptera: Membracidae)

Abstract

The buffalo treehopper, Stictocephala bisonia (Kopp and Yonke, 1977), is an invasive pest originating from the United States and capable of causing severe damage to many plants. It is now established in many countries in the northern hemisphere and was first recorded in China in 2017. However, the origin of the S. bisonia populations in China is currently unclear, and the environmental factors influencing its distribution of S. bisonia and its potential for range expansion remain incompletely understood. This study utilized mitochondrial genome data from 75 individuals from six countries worldwide to analyze the population genetic structure, aiming to elucidate the origins of the S. bisonia populations in China. The results indicate that the six Chinese populations have undergone at least two invasion events, with the majority of them originating from Europe, which is also the region with the most records of S. bisonia. Available occurrence records and bioclimatic variables were fit to a MaxEnt model, optimized by selecting the best combination of feature classes and regularization multipliers based on the lowest corrected Akaike information criterion score. The model was used to predict the global suitable distribution areas for S. bisonia during the current period (2021-2040) as well as three future periods (2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100) under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126 and SSP585). The results indicated that the minimum temperature of the coldest month and precipitation seasonality are the most important bioclimatic factors affecting the distribution of S. bisonia. Currently, the suitable areas for S. bisonia are primarily concentrated in the western part of North America and Europe. Compared to current environmental conditions, all future climate scenarios predict an expansion of the suitable areas, with a distinct trend of eastward extension. Policymakers and governments should prioritize the development of effective pest management measures in the highly suitable areas for S. bisonia, particularly in Europe, to control this invasive pest and minimize global economic losses.

Keywords: MaxEnt model; buffalo treehopper; invasive pest; mitochondrial genome; suitable distribution areas.