Race-specific temporal trends of HPV-related cancers in South Africa: An analysis of the South African National Cancer Registry, 2011-2022

Abstract

Evaluating trends in HPV-related cancer rates by race is essential for identifying high-risk populations and improving prevention efforts. Using 2011-2022 South African National Cancer Registry data, we analyzed age-standardized incidence rates by race and sex across three periods (2011-2014, 2015-2018, 2019-2022) using linear regression. Significant increases were observed for oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) among White females (p < .01), vulvar SCC among Asian (p < .01) and Black (p = .02) females, and anal SCC among Colored females and Black males (p < .01). Cervical carcinoma rates remained stable for most racial groups, except for the annual trends showing a 1.9% increase per year (95% CI = 1.0, 2.7) among White females. These findings suggest rising incidence rates for some HPV-related cancers across racial groups in South Africa. Further research is needed to explore the constellation of risk factors contributing to these trends and to guide targeted interventions.

Keywords: HPV‐related cancers; South Africa; incidence rate; racial differences; temporal trend.