Dynamics and trade-off/synergy of ecosystem services in China's First Batch national Parks: Evidence from recent decades and future land use and cover changes

Aifang Weng; Baoyin Li; Yuying Lin; Linsheng Wen; Yunrui Zhou; Guo Cai; Sunbowen Zhang; Mir Muhammad Nizamani; Hongxin Wang

doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.128481

Dynamics and trade-off/synergy of ecosystem services in China's First Batch national Parks: Evidence from recent decades and future land use and cover changes

J Environ Manage. 2026 Jan 15:398:128481. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.128481. Epub 2026 Jan 2.

Authors

Aifang Weng¹, Baoyin Li², Yuying Lin³, Linsheng Wen¹, Yunrui Zhou¹, Guo Cai¹, Sunbowen Zhang¹, Mir Muhammad Nizamani⁴, Hongxin Wang⁵

Affiliations

¹ College of Geographical Science and College of Carbon Neutral Future Technology, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, 350117, China; State Key Laboratory for Subtropical Mountain Ecology of the Ministry of Science and Technology and Fujian Province, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, 350117, China.
² College of Geographical Science and College of Carbon Neutral Future Technology, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, 350117, China; State Key Laboratory for Subtropical Mountain Ecology of the Ministry of Science and Technology and Fujian Province, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, 350117, China. Electronic address: liby@fjnu.edu.cn.
³ School of Culture, Tourism and Public Administration, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, 350117, China. Electronic address: linyuying2019@fjnu.edu.cn.
⁴ Department of Plant Pathology, College of Agriculture, Guizhou University, Guiyang, 550025, China.
⁵ Zhai Mingguo Academician Work Station, Sanya University, Sanya, 572000, China; New Liberal Arts Research and Development Divison, Sanya University, Sanya, 572000, China.

PMID: 41483771
DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.128481

Abstract

Understanding how ecosystem services (ESs) respond to long-term land use and cover change (LUCC) is essential for sustaining ecological integrity in protected areas. However, most existing studies have focused current conditions, lacking integrated assessments connecting historical ES dynamics with future patterns under policy scenarios. Moreover, spatially explicit analyses of trade-offs and synergies among multiple ESs remain scarce, especially in newly established protected areas. This study integrates the Markov-PLUS and InVEST models to simulate LUCC and quantify four key Ess, habitat quality (HQ), carbon storage (CS), water yield (WY), and soil retention (SR), across China's First Batch of National Parks (CFBNPs) from 1980 to 2035 under natural development (ND) and ecological protection (EP) scenarios. Results show that: (1) From 1980 to 2035, forest and grassland areas increased notably, while cropland and bare land declined, especially under EP scenarios. (2) LUCC was shaped by both anthropogenic and natural drivers, with EP scenarios promoting forest and grassland restoration; (3) HQ and CS exhibited strong synergies during 1980-2000 (correlation coefficient >0.60), but no significant synergies were observed under future scenarios, suggesting a loss of ecological coupling between the two services; (4) ES improvement hotspots were located in core protected zones, while coldspots occurred in disturbed margins. By bridging historical dynamics with future projections, this study provides a comprehensive framework for understanding ES interactions and spatial heterogeneity. The findings offer guidance for adaptive management, functional zoning, and ecosystem restoration within CFBNPs, and inform transferable strategies for protected area planning globally.

Keywords: Ecosystem services; InVEST; Land use and land cover change; National parks; Trade-off and synergy.

MeSH terms

China
Conservation of Natural Resources*
Ecosystem*
Forests
Grassland
Parks, Recreational*
Soil

Substances

Soil