Viral kinetics in adults with Covid-19 treated with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir or molnupiravir: a population-based, observational cohort study

Virol J. 2026 Jan 10;23(1):34. doi: 10.1186/s12985-025-03057-2.

Abstract

Background: This research was motivated by the widespread use of oral antivirals during the Covid-19 pandemic and the remaining uncertainty regarding their effects on viral kinetics, which have rarely been studied in real-world population cohorts of this size.

Methods: We analysed 291,340 SARS-CoV-2 cycle threshold (CT) values from 113,399 non-hospitalized adult patients in Vienna (01/2022-05/2023), including 30,451 from 12,166 nirmatrelvir-ritonavir recipients, 27,959 from 10,752 molnupiravir recipients, and 232,930 from 90,481 untreated controls.

Results: Both antivirals initially caused a rapid increase in mean CT values. After completion of the 5-day treatment course, CT values declined in both antiviral groups, which was not observed in untreated individuals.

Conclusions: These findings provide population-level evidence on post-treatment viral kinetics of oral antivirals during the Omicron wave.

Keywords: Coronavirus; Lagevrio; Paxlovid; SARS-CoV-2; Viral rebound.

Publication types

  • Observational Study

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Antiviral Agents* / therapeutic use
  • Austria / epidemiology
  • COVID-19 Drug Treatment*
  • COVID-19* / epidemiology
  • COVID-19* / virology
  • Cohort Studies
  • Cytidine* / analogs & derivatives
  • Cytidine* / therapeutic use
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Hydroxylamines* / therapeutic use
  • Lactams
  • Leucine / analogs & derivatives
  • Leucine / therapeutic use
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Nitriles / therapeutic use
  • Proline* / analogs & derivatives
  • Proline* / therapeutic use
  • Ritonavir* / therapeutic use
  • SARS-CoV-2* / drug effects
  • SARS-CoV-2* / physiology
  • Viral Load / drug effects

Substances

  • Antiviral Agents
  • Ritonavir
  • molnupiravir
  • Hydroxylamines
  • Cytidine
  • nirmatrelvir
  • Proline
  • Leucine
  • Nitriles
  • Lactams