A multi-cohort assessment of the polygenic prediction in ADHD treatment response

Abstract

Pharmacological treatments for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) are efficacious and safe; however, substantial interindividual variability in treatment response persists, with many patients experiencing suboptimal outcomes or early discontinuation. Although genetic factors have been proposed as contributors to this variability, clinically actionable predictors remain elusive. Here, we present the first meta-analysis evaluating whether polygenic liability for ADHD and related psychiatric and behavioral-cognitive phenotypes is associated with clinically meaningful response to methylphenidate in 1000 ADHD cases from Norway, Brazil, and Spain assessed in real-world settings. Polygenic scores (PGS) for ADHD, autism, bipolar disorder, educational attainment, major depressive disorder, neuroticism, and schizophrenia were calculated separately for each cohort. Treatment response was assessed using evaluations of global clinical improvement and harmonized by categorizing individuals as responders or non-responders. Cohort-specific associations were combined using fixed-effects meta-analysis. No PGS showed a significant association with treatment response. Effect sizes were small, consistent across cohorts, and characterized by minimal between-study heterogeneity. Sensitivity analyses incorporating clinical and treatment-related covariates yielded convergent results. As the first meta-analytic evaluation of polygenic predictors evaluating clinically meaningful ADHD stimulant response, these findings delineate the current limits of PGS in pharmacogenomic applications. Rather than supporting immediate clinical utility, our results highlight key methodological and conceptual constraints, including limited sample sizes, heterogeneous outcome definitions, and the indirect nature of susceptibility-based PGS for predicting treatment response. By mapping these boundaries, this study provides a framework to recalibrate research priorities and guide the next generation of ADHD pharmacogenomic studies toward larger, harmonized, and more informative definitions of treatment response.

Keywords: Meta-analysis; Neurodevelopmental disorders; Pharmacogenomics; Polygenic scores; Stimulants; Treatment.