Rising Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus-Related Mortality in the United States, 2000 to 2024, With Forecasts to 2034

Arkadeep Dhali; Rick Maity; Abdul R Faisal; Muhammad U Saeed; Ali S Hafeez; Asad Zaman; Jyotirmoy Biswas; Adnan Bhat

doi:10.1097/COC.0000000000001310

Rising Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus-Related Mortality in the United States, 2000 to 2024, With Forecasts to 2034

Am J Clin Oncol. 2026 Mar 2. doi: 10.1097/COC.0000000000001310. Online ahead of print.

Authors

Arkadeep Dhali^{1

2

3

4}, Rick Maity⁵, Abdul R Faisal⁶, Muhammad U Saeed⁶, Ali S Hafeez⁶, Asad Zaman⁶, Jyotirmoy Biswas⁷, Adnan Bhat⁸

Affiliations

¹ Academic Department of Gastroenterology, Sheffield Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust.
² School of Medicine and Population Health, University of Sheffield.
³ Edinburgh Medical School, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh.
⁴ Division of Cancer, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
⁵ School of Medical Science and Technology, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur.
⁶ Department of General Medicine, CMH Multan Institute of Medical Sciences, Multan, Pakistan.
⁷ Department of Ophthalmology, Barasat Government Medical College and Hospital, Barasat, India.
⁸ Department of Hospital Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL.

PMID: 41770793
DOI: 10.1097/COC.0000000000001310

Abstract

Objective: This study analyzed mortality trends for pancreatic adenocarcinoma among individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in the United States from 2000 to 2024 and forecasted the future burden.

Methods: This population-based, retrospective cohort study used the CDC WONDER database to identify deaths among US residents aged 25 years and older (2000 to 2024) with ICD-10 codes for pancreatic adenocarcinoma (C25.0-C25.9) and T2DM (E11.0-E11.9). Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) were calculated per 1,000,000 population. Joinpoint regression estimated annual percentage changes (APCs) and ARIMA modeling forecasted mortality through 2034.

Results: We identified 28,206 deaths. The overall AAMR increased from 2.39 in 2000 to 9.17 in 2024, with accelerated growth from 2012 to 2024 (APC: 8.13%). Males had higher mortality than females (11.15 vs. 7.50 in 2024). Black/African Americans had elevated rates, reaching 9.97 in 2024. The Western US reported the highest AAMR (13.35 in 2024). Mortality was highest in adults aged 65 years and older (38.20 in 2024) versus those aged 45 to 64 (4.81). ARIMA modeling forecasts an AAMR of 14.63 by 2034.

Conclusion: Mortality from concurrent pancreatic adenocarcinoma and T2DM has risen, with marked disparities by sex, race, age, and region, and the projected increase underscores the need for targeted prevention and early detection in high-risk diabetic populations.

Keywords: CDC; United States; forecast; mortality rate; pancreatic cancer; type 2 diabetes mellitus.