Absence of steatosis combined with cardiometabolic risk factors confers the highest hepatocellular carcinoma risk in treated chronic hepatitis B

Ann Med. 2026 Dec;58(1):2658921. doi: 10.1080/07853890.2026.2658921. Epub 2026 Apr 20.

Abstract

Background: Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is a major cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In patients receiving CHB treatment, coexistence of steatotic liver disease (SLD) and cardiometabolic risk factors (CMRFs) markedly influence HCC risk. This study explored hepatic and metabolic profiles, HCC predictors, and the modifying roles of SLD and CMRFs in CHB.

Methods: This study included 1012 patients receiving nucleos(t)ide analogs between 2004 and 2022. They were stratified into SLD (N = 702) or non-SLD (N = 310) groups.

Results: Over a 5.5-year follow-up period, 73 patients developed HCC. At baseline, the SLD group had younger age, higher body mass index values, lower fibrosis indices, and more severe metabolic dysregulation than did the non-SLD group. SLD conferred protection against HCC (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.43; p = 0.001). However, the presence of ≥2 CMRFs significantly increased HCC risk (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.93; p = 0.009). The highest HCC risk was observed in patients without SLD having ≥2 CMRFs (5-year incidence rate: 21.4%). The protective effect of SLD persisted after inverse probability of treatment weighting. It was most pronounced in older, cirrhotic, and high-metabolic-risk subgroups. Hepatitis B virus DNA suppression, hepatitis B surface antigen decline, and fibrosis score improvement during treatment were similar between the two groups.

Conclusions: Among patients with CHB receiving nucleos(t)ide analogs, those without SLD having ≥2 CMRFs had the highest risk of HCC. Thus, steatosis and metabolic burden should be incorporated into precision risk stratification.

Keywords: Chronic hepatitis B; cardiometabolic risk factor; hepatocellular carcinoma; nucleos(t)ide analog; steatotic liver disease.

Plain language summary

In this nucleos(t)ide analogue–treated chronic hepatitis B cohort (unlike prior studies that mixed treated and untreated patients), steatotic liver disease (SLD) was independently associated with a lower risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).HBV DNA suppression, hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) decline, and fibrosis score improvement during therapy were similar between groups, suggesting that the lower HCC risk observed in patients with SLD is unlikely to be mediated by differential antiviral efficacy or enhanced HBV viral suppression.Cardiometabolic burden remained a major determinant of HCC risk during treatment, with the highest incidence observed in patients without SLD who had multiple cardiometabolic risk factors, while the biological mechanism linking SLD to reduced HCC risk remains unclear.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Antiviral Agents / therapeutic use
  • Carcinoma, Hepatocellular* / epidemiology
  • Carcinoma, Hepatocellular* / etiology
  • Carcinoma, Hepatocellular* / virology
  • Cardiometabolic Risk Factors
  • Fatty Liver* / complications
  • Fatty Liver* / epidemiology
  • Female
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Hepatitis B, Chronic* / complications
  • Hepatitis B, Chronic* / drug therapy
  • Hepatitis B, Chronic* / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Liver Neoplasms* / epidemiology
  • Liver Neoplasms* / etiology
  • Liver Neoplasms* / virology
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Risk Factors

Substances

  • Antiviral Agents