A combined logistic regression and decision tree analysis of factors influencing throwing velocity and accuracy in little league baseball players

Hitoshi Shitara; Tsuyoshi Tajika; Ryosuku Miyamoto; Yuhei Hatori; Fukuhisa Ino; Kurumi Nakase; Takuma Kachi; Rei Noguchi; Kozo Furushima; Tadanao Funakoshi; Azusa Miyamoto; Yuta Kainuma; Hirotaka Chikuda

doi:10.1016/j.jseint.2026.101690

A combined logistic regression and decision tree analysis of factors influencing throwing velocity and accuracy in little league baseball players

JSES Int. 2026 Mar 5;10(4):101690. doi: 10.1016/j.jseint.2026.101690. eCollection 2026 Jul.

Affiliations

¹ Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Gunma University Graduate School of Medicine, Maebashi, Japan.
² Department of Business Economics, Tokyo University of Science, Tokyo, Japan.
³ Keiyu Orthopaedic Hospital, Tatebayashi, Japan.

Abstract

Background: We investigated factors related to pitching performance-defined by pitch velocity and accuracy-based on baseball experience, pitching workload, anthropometrics, and range of motion and strength (grip and shoulder) among little league baseball players.

Methods: This cross-sectional study included 348 right-handed baseball players aged 9-12 years. Assessments included baseball and pitching experience, weekly pitching workload during both games and practices, anthropometrics, range of motion, grip, and shoulder strength. Throwing velocity was measured using a radar gun during a standardized flat-ground throwing task, and throwing accuracy was assessed using a nine-zone target scoring system. Players were classified into high- and low-velocity groups based on the median velocity to enable decision tree analysis. Using logistic regression and decision tree analyses, factors associated with throwing velocity and accuracy were identified.

Results: Logistic regression analysis revealed that pitcher experience (odds ratio [OR]:3.45; P = .003), pitching workload ≥100/week (OR: 5.16; P = .002), and dominant-side grip strength (OR: 1.17; P = .033) were significantly associated with high pitch velocity. Decision tree analysis showed that players with a strong dominant-side grip (>14.5 kgf), age >10 years, and grip strength >19.8 kgf had the highest probability of high pitch velocity. Among players aged ≤10 years, those with ≥3 years of experience were more likely to have high velocity. Only baseball experience was a significant factor associated with pitch accuracy (OR: 1.23; P = .040). High-accuracy players were taller, older, and had greater nondominant grip strength than low-accuracy players.

Conclusion: Throwing velocity was modestly associated with pitching experience, weekly pitching workload, and dominant-side grip strength, whereas throwing accuracy was associated primarily with baseball experience. These findings should be interpreted cautiously given the modest effect sizes and cross-sectional design.

Keywords: Accuracy; Decision tree analysis; Motor control; Performance; Pitching; Velocity; Youth baseball.