Key operational considerations for biogeographical ancestry prediction capabilities

Felicity Poulsen; Lyn Griffiths; Larisa Haupt; Catherine Hitchcock; Kirsty Wright; Runa Daniel

doi:10.1016/j.forsciint.2026.113000

Key operational considerations for biogeographical ancestry prediction capabilities

Forensic Sci Int. 2026 Sep:386:113000. doi: 10.1016/j.forsciint.2026.113000. Epub 2026 May 8.

Authors

Felicity Poulsen¹, Lyn Griffiths², Larisa Haupt³, Catherine Hitchcock⁴, Kirsty Wright⁵, Runa Daniel²

Affiliations

¹ Genomics Research Centre, Centre for Genomics and Personalised Health, School of Biomedical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Kelvin Grove, QLD, Australia; Forensic Biology/DNA Unit, Forensic & Analytical Science Service, NSW Health Pathology, Sydney, NSW, Australia. Electronic address: Felicity.Poulsen@hdr.qut.edu.au.
² Genomics Research Centre, Centre for Genomics and Personalised Health, School of Biomedical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Kelvin Grove, QLD, Australia.
³ Stem Cell and Neurogenesis Group, Genomics Research Centre, Centre for Genomics and Personalised Health, School of Biomedical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Kelvin Grove, QLD, Australia; ARC Training Centre for Cell and Tissue Engineering Technologies, Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Kelvin Grove, QLD, Australia; Max Planck Queensland Centre for the Materials Sciences of Extracellular Matrices, Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Kelvin Grove, QLD, Australia.
⁴ Forensic Biology/DNA Unit, Forensic & Analytical Science Service, NSW Health Pathology, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
⁵ Genomics Research Centre, Centre for Genomics and Personalised Health, School of Biomedical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Kelvin Grove, QLD, Australia; Unrecovered War Casualties-Army, Australian Defence Force, Russell Offices, Russell, ACT, Australia; Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF), Headquarters History and Heritage, Unrecovered War Casualties-Air Force, Russell, ACT, Australia.

PMID: 42114174
DOI: 10.1016/j.forsciint.2026.113000

Abstract

Biogeographical ancestry (BGA) prediction is a valuable Forensic DNA Intelligence (FDI) tool used to provide investigators with additional information about the donor of biological evidence. FDI is particularly useful in cases where routine DNA analysis has not led to an identification. Over the last two decades, substantial research effort has been directed towards the development of new panels of ancestry informative markers and analysis tools for BGA prediction. These efforts have supported the successful application of BGA prediction in casework across several international jurisdictions. This paper identifies critical components of operational BGA prediction methods to highlight considerations for method development, optimisation, validation and associated interpretation and to identify areas where further research is needed to enhance capabilities.

Keywords: Biogeographical ancestry prediction; Forensic DNA intelligence; Investigation; Operational implementation; Validation.

Publication types

Review

MeSH terms

DNA Fingerprinting*
Forensic Genetics* / methods
Genetic Markers
Genetics, Population*
Humans
Prediction Algorithms
Racial Groups* / genetics

Substances

Genetic Markers