Temperature exerts a first-order control on vegetation photosynthesis and transpiration. Yet most studies investigating temperature impacts on plants rely on near-surface air temperature, rather than canopy temperature-the temperature plants actually experience. Because canopy temperature directly regulates ecosystem function, it provides a more accurate measure of vegetation-climate interactions. Combining Earth System Model (ESM) simulations and satellite observations in a dual emergent constraint, here we show that canopy temperature is projected to increase substantially more than air temperature (~0.11-degrees more or a 16% increase in their difference) over the 21st century. The ESM ensemble median fails to capture these stronger increases in the majority of vegetated regions. We find that the largest projected increases in the difference between canopy and air temperature are predicted to occur in regions where elevating moisture stress-particularly rising vapor pressure deficit-increasingly constrains vegetation growth and transpiration. This implies that future warming will impose stronger constraints on plant function than currently estimated. Relying on air temperature alone will therefore lead to systematic underestimation of temperature effects on photosynthesis, vegetation growth, and the land carbon sink. Accurate representation of canopy temperature in ESMs is thus essential to improve projections of ecosystem responses and feedbacks to climate change.
© 2026. The Author(s).