The empirical percent probability that natural menopause has occurred after first presentation of amenorrhea of various durations in women greater than or equal to 45 years of age has been calculated using data from a cohort of subjects who prospectively recorded menstrual flow and related gynecologic events. The probability that menopause has occurred increases with the amenorrheal interval (duration), and for a given interval, the probability increases with age. After 180 days of amenorrhea, 45% to 72% of subjects were menopausal; after 360 days, 90%. These data may offer assistance in advising patients on the probability of menopause and the continuance of contraceptive practices, and in considering whether late genital bleeding after amenorrhea represents a physiologic or pathologic process.