Exclusions and attributions of paternity: practical experiences of forensic genetics and statistics

Am J Hum Genet. 1980 May;32(3):420-31.


The Swedish State Institute for Blood Group Serology is a central government laboratory handling all blood typing in paternity cases in Sweden, each year testing 1,500-2,000 cases using about 13 polymorphisms. Of the accused men, 35%-40% are nonfathers, but in one-man cases (about 78% of all cases), approximately 75% are the true fathers. Exclusions appear to be distributed as expected from allele frequencies, and the paternity probability of nonexcluded men is assessed with a Bayesian approach. Some cases are retested in extended investigations which raise theoretical exclusion capability from about 87% to about 99%. Both the results of extended investigations and the theoretical consideration of the distribution of paternity probabilities support the use of such positive statistical evidence for the attribution of paternity.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Bayes Theorem
  • Blood Group Antigens / genetics*
  • Child
  • Female
  • Genetic Markers
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Paternity*
  • Polymorphism, Genetic
  • Statistics as Topic


  • Blood Group Antigens
  • Genetic Markers