GMENAC: its manpower forecasting framework

Am J Public Health. 1981 Oct;71(10):1116-24. doi: 10.2105/ajph.71.10.1116.


The Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee (GMENAC) was an advisory group to the Secretary, US Department of Health and Human Services. Its charter ended September 30, 1980. It submitted 107 recommendations to achieve a better balance between future physician requirements and future physician supply, by specialty and geography. Among its contributions were the development of a manpower forecasting framework and series of models which are described here, together with the results of these models. These models may have significant utility in future human resource planning at both national and local levels.

MeSH terms

  • Delphi Technique
  • Forecasting / methods*
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Physicians / supply & distribution*
  • United States
  • United States Dept. of Health and Human Services