Identification of obese persons likely to benefit from weight reduction programs presents considerable difficulty. Neither biological (e.g., adipose cellularity) nor psychological (e.g., MMPI profiles) measures thus far have been shown to differentiate reliably between those who do and those who do not lose weight in such programs. Fifteen obese persons about to enter a group program intended to produce "conditioned satiety" were asked to estimate the number of pounds that they expected to lose. Their outcome expectation was found to correlate significantly with weight loss recorded 7 weeks later. However, the magnitude of expected weight loss exceeded the actual amount of weight lost.