Objective: To determine if serologic marker responses to zidovudine treatment during the first year of antiretroviral therapy could predict subsequent HIV disease progression independently of absolute CD4 lymphocyte responses.
Methods: We conducted a case-control study in patients with asymptomatic HIV disease, who were initiating zidovudine therapy in a randomized, prospective trial. A total of 102 patients who progressed to AIDS or advanced AIDS-related complex and 177 randomly selected controls matched by baseline CD4 cell count and duration of follow-up had serum samples (from prior to and at 8, 16, 32 and 48 weeks of zidovudine treatment) assayed for acid-disassociated HIV p24 antigen, beta 2-microglobulin (beta 2M), neopterin, soluble interleukin (IL)-2 receptor, soluble CD4 protein and soluble CD8 protein.
Results: Median time to event for cases was 20.2 months; median follow-up on study was 35.4 months for controls. After controlling for absolute CD4 count at baseline, increased baseline serum concentrations of HIV p24 antigen, beta 2M, neopterin, and soluble IL-2 receptor were highly predictive of increased risk of HIV disease progression. In a multiple logistic regression model, controlling for baseline marker values, change in beta 2M consistently added independent value to change in CD4 count in predicting subsequent risk of disease progression.
Conclusions: Monitoring serum immunologic markers, in particular beta 2M, in addition to absolute CD4 lymphocyte counts prior to and within the first 4 months after initiating dideoxynucleoside therapy can increase the accuracy of estimations of subsequent long-term risk of clinical HIV disease progression. This information may be useful to clinicians and patients who are making decisions about initiating or changing antiretroviral therapy.