Estimation of CHD risk in a French working population using a modified Framingham model. The PCV-METRA Group

J Clin Epidemiol. 1994 Dec;47(12):1353-64. doi: 10.1016/0895-4356(94)90079-5.


We adapt a recent model from the Framingham study (Circulation 1991; 83: 356-362) to predict CHD in France for both sexes over a large age range. Calculations were based on data from the French PCV-METRA study. In France, the Paris Prospective Study model could predict CHD but only for men aged 43-53 years. Applied to men 43-53 years from the PCV-METRA, the Framingham model estimated a 5-year CHD risk (4%) lower than the risk reported in the Framingham sample, but significantly higher than the risk estimated by the French model (2%). Differences in estimated CHD risk between the Framingham and the PCV-METRA samples were explained for only 30% by adjustment on major CHD risk factors (mainly HDL-cholesterol and tobacco). Modifying the intercept in the Framingham model, agreement with estimated risk by the French model was improved from 29 to 80%. By an appropriate change of the intercept, the Framingham model might be used to estimate CHD risk in other populations.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Coronary Disease / epidemiology*
  • Female
  • France / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Risk Factors