Purpose: To assess prognostic factors for bladder relapse and distant failure following definitive radiotherapy for invasive transitional cell carcinoma (TCC) of the bladder.
Methods and materials: Retrospective review of patients treated in the period 1977 to 1990 by definitive radiotherapy. The factors studied included age, sex, T stage, histological grade, tumor multiplicity, ureteric obstruction, total radiation dose, and use of neoadjuvant chemotherapy. The endpoints studied were bladder relapse and distant failure.
Results: There were 342 patients with a mean follow-up time of 7.9 years. Bladder relapse was observed in 159 patients. The overall actuarial bladder relapse rate at 5 years was 55% (SE = 3%). Prognostic factors for a higher bladder relapse rate were: tumor multiplicity (p < 0.001), presence of ureteric obstruction (p = 0.001), and higher T stage (p = 0.044). Distant failure occurred in 39 patients. The overall actuarial distant failure rate at 5 years was 28% (SE = 3%). Prognostic factors for a higher distant failure rate were: ureteric obstruction (p = 0.003) and higher T stage (p = 0.030).
Conclusion: In our study, patients with invasive bladder TCC fell into distinct prognostic groups determined by the three independent factors, ureteric obstruction, tumor multiplicity, and T stage. These factors provided estimated risks of bladder relapse by 5 years which ranged from 34% to 91%. Knowledge of these prognostic factors can help in the selection of patients more suited for bladder preservation by definitive radiotherapy.