Objective: To evaluate the 10-year follow-up of a cohort of 141 patients operated between 1979 and 1981, and to analyse the prognostic significance of traditional tumour parameters, using a univariate and a multivariate analysis.
Design: Prospective descriptive study.
Setting: Department of Surgery, University Hospital Maastricht, the Netherlands.
Methods: In 1979 a database was established in which 141 consecutive patients with colorectal carcinoma were included. The 5-year and 10-year survival rates were determined and the values of the clinicopathological staging (deducted from the Dukes classification), CEA expression, tumour size, localisation of the tumour and age of the patient as tumour markers were assessed.
Results: The 5-year and 10-year survival rates were 30.5% and 15.6% respectively. The Dukes staging system appeared to be the most important prognostic factor for survival (p = 0.0004), but tumour size and shape, and central lymph node involvement were independent prognostic factors. Furthermore, no patients died as a result of colon tumour after 7 years of follow-up.
Conclusions: The Dukes staging system is the most important prognostic factor for survival. The follow-up of patients treated for colon carcinoma can be stopped after seven years. Only polyp surveillance should be continued after this time.