Precision of incidence predictions based on Poisson distributed observations

Stat Med. 1994 Aug 15;13(15):1513-23. doi: 10.1002/sim.4780131503.


Disease incidence predictions are useful for a number of administrative and scientific purposes. The simplest ones are made using trend extrapolation, on either an arithmetic or a logarithmic scale. This paper shows how approximate confidence prediction intervals can be calculated for such predictions, both for the total number of cases and for the age-adjusted incidence rates, by assuming Poisson distribution of the age and period specific numbers of incident cases. Generalizations for prediction models, for example, using power families and extra-Poisson variation, are also presented. Cancer incidence predictions for the Stockholm-Gotland Oncological Region in Sweden are used as an example.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Age Factors
  • Confidence Intervals
  • Female
  • Forecasting*
  • Humans
  • Incidence*
  • Linear Models
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Neoplasms / epidemiology*
  • Poisson Distribution*
  • Statistics, Nonparametric
  • Sweden / epidemiology