Prognostic value of urinary albumin excretion rate and other risk factors in elderly diabetic patients and non-diabetic control subjects surviving the first 5 years after assessment

Diabetologia. 1993 Oct;36(10):1030-6. doi: 10.1007/BF02374495.


In 1981-1982 urinary albumin excretion rates were determined in 211 diabetic and 216 non-diabetic subjects aged 60-74 years. By April 1992 122 diabetic and 58 non-diabetic probands had died. Dividing the two study populations at an albumin excretion rate of 15 micrograms/min showed that 69.3% of diabetic subjects with values at or above the limit, and 49.9% of those with values below (log rank test p = 0.0082) had died. The corresponding values for non-diabetic subjects were 44.4% and 21.0%, respectively (log rank test p = 0.0002). In single factor log rank tests ischaemic heart disease and a low value of HDL were also predictive of death in the diabetic population during a 10-11-year observation period. In the non-diabetic population ischaemic heart disease, hypertension, and a serum creatinine level above the median value were predictive. In further log rank analyses probands dying during the first years, (e.g. the first 2 years) were removed from the calculations. The prognostic value of the above-mentioned factors diminished with time. In a Cox Regression analysis we found that the predictive value of urinary albumin excretion rate to mortality had disappeared when subjects who had died during the first 5 years were removed from the analysis, whereas HDL in the diabetic patients and blood pressure and serum creatinine in non-diabetic subjects were still of significant predictive value. We therefore conclude that urinary albumin excretion rate is a more short-term predictor of mortality than previously thought, in contrast to HDL, hypertension and serum creatinine.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Age Factors
  • Aged
  • Albuminuria / blood
  • Albuminuria / epidemiology*
  • Albuminuria / mortality*
  • Blood Pressure
  • Body Mass Index
  • Denmark / epidemiology
  • Diabetes Mellitus / blood
  • Diabetes Mellitus / epidemiology*
  • Diabetes Mellitus / mortality*
  • Diabetes Mellitus / urine*
  • Female
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Myocardial Ischemia / complications
  • Myocardial Ischemia / mortality
  • Prognosis
  • Regression Analysis
  • Risk Factors
  • Sex Factors
  • Surveys and Questionnaires
  • Survival Analysis
  • Survival Rate