Prognostic Value of Viremia in Patients With Long-Standing Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection. Swiss HIV Cohort Study Group

J Infect Dis. 1996 Jun;173(6):1388-93. doi: 10.1093/infdis/173.6.1388.


Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) viremia was evaluated in 73 patients with long-standing infection to investigate its relationship with clinical or biologic parameters and to assess its use as a predictor of clinical progression and death. After adjustment for other parameters, baseline HIV RNA level was significantly associated with baseline clinical stage and CD4 cell count. During follow-up (mean, 14.6 months), 16 patients died; 34 others had clinical progression of disease. In multivariate analysis, mortality was better predicted by baseline CD4 cell count (relative hazard [RH] for 100-cell decrease, 3.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.5-8.2; P = .003) than by HIV RNA (P = .28) or clinical stage. HIV RNA level was the best predictor of clinical progression (RH for 1 log increase, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.6-4.9; P < .001). Monitoring of HIV RNA level may help to identify patients who might benefit from antiretroviral or prophylactic therapy.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • CD4 Lymphocyte Count
  • Cohort Studies
  • Disease Progression
  • Disease-Free Survival
  • Female
  • HIV / physiology*
  • HIV Infections / mortality
  • HIV Infections / physiopathology
  • HIV Infections / virology*
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Prognosis
  • Prospective Studies
  • RNA, Viral / blood*
  • Viremia / mortality
  • Viremia / virology*


  • RNA, Viral