A prospective study of urinary oestrogen excretion and breast cancer risk

Br J Cancer. 1996 Jun;73(12):1615-9. doi: 10.1038/bjc.1996.304.


To test the hypothesis that high levels of endogenous oestrogens increase the risk for developing breast cancer, concentrations of oestrone, oestradiol and oestriol were measured in 24 h urine samples from 1000 women participants in a prospective study of breast cancer on the island of Guernsey. Sixty-nine subjects were diagnosed with breast cancer subsequent to urine collection. Among women who were premenopausal at the time of urine collection, cases excreted less oestrogen than controls; the odds ratios (95% CI) for breast cancer in the middle and upper thirds of the distribution of oestrogen excretion, in comparison with the lower third (reference group, assigned odds ratio = 1.0), were 0.5(0.2-1.2) and 0.4(0.2-1.1) respectively for oestrone, 0.8(0.4-1.8 and 0.4(0.2-1.1) for oestradiol, 0.7(0.3-1.6) and 0.7(0.3-1.6) for oestriol and 0.9(0.4-2.0) and 0.5(0.2-1.3) for total oestrogens. Among women who were post-menopausal at the time of urine collection, the trend was in the opposite direction, with an increase in risk associated with increased oestrogen excretion; the odds ratios were 0.9(0.3-2.2) and 1.1(0.5-2.8) for oestrone, 0.8(0.3-2.3) and 1.9(0.8-4.6) for oestradiol, 1.5(0.6-3.9) and 1.8(0.7-4.6) for oestriol and 0.9(0.4-2.6) and 1.9(0.7-4.7) for total oestrogens. The trends of increasing risk with increasing oestrogen excretion among post-menopausal women were statistically significant for oestradiol (P = 0.022) and for total oestrogens (P = 0.016). We conclude that high levels of endogenous oestrogens in post-menopausal women are associated with increased breast cancer risk, but that the relationship of oestrogens in premenopausal women with risk is unclear.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Breast Neoplasms / epidemiology
  • Breast Neoplasms / etiology*
  • Breast Neoplasms / urine*
  • Case-Control Studies
  • Estradiol / urine
  • Estriol / urine
  • Estrogens / urine*
  • Estrone / urine
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Middle Aged
  • Postmenopause / urine
  • Premenopause / urine
  • Prospective Studies
  • Risk Factors


  • Estrogens
  • Estrone
  • Estradiol
  • Estriol