A method is presented that directly calculates the mean number of scattered coincidences in data acquired with fully 3D positron emission tomography (PET). This method uses a transmission scan, an emission scan, the physics of Compton scatter, and a mathematical model of the scanner in a forward calculation of the number of events for which one photon has undergone a single Compton interaction. The distribution of events for which multiple Compton interactions have occurred is modelled as a linear transformation of the single-scatter distribution. Computational efficiency is achieved by sampling at rates no higher than those required by the scatter distribution and by implementing the algorithm using look-up tables. Evaluation studies in phantoms with large scatter fractions show that the method yields images with quantitative accuracy equivalent to that of slice-collimated PET in clinically useful times.