Non-invasive prognostic factors in chronic heart failure. One-year survival of 300 patients with a diagnosis of chronic heart failure due to ischemic heart disease or dilated cardiomyopathy

Int J Cardiol. 1996 Oct 25;56(3):283-8. doi: 10.1016/0167-5273(96)02740-4.


The prognosis and clinical findings related to prognosis were examined in 300 patients with congestive heart failure in a prospective study. The diagnosis was based on case history data (NYHA class II or III), depressed ejection fraction (< or = 40%) and/or increased cardiothoracic ratio (> or = 50%). Forty-eight (16%) patients died within 1 year after the entry examination. Non-invasive baseline parameters of survivors and non-survivors were compared. All necessary medication was allowed. At the entry of the study three parameters independently predicted an increased mortality on a high significance level (P < 0.01): cardiothoracic ratio, signs of lung congestion on the chest X-ray (four grade classification), and plasma urea level; other three parameters did so on a lower significance level (P < 0.05): plasma natrium, creatinine value and endsystolic volume. Other parameters such as age, ejection fraction, NYHA class or exercise tolerance duration were not statistically different in survivors and non-survivors. Our modification (a four grade classification) of the signs of lung changes on the chest X-ray enables a more accurate determination of the prognosis in patients with chronic heart failure.

MeSH terms

  • Cardiomyopathy, Dilated / complications*
  • Echocardiography
  • Exercise Test
  • Female
  • Heart Failure / blood
  • Heart Failure / diagnosis*
  • Heart Failure / etiology
  • Heart Failure / mortality*
  • Hemodynamics
  • Humans
  • Lung / diagnostic imaging
  • Lung / pathology
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Myocardial Ischemia / complications*
  • Prognosis
  • Radiography
  • Stroke Volume
  • Survival Rate